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Thread: Brexit countdown

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerry T View Post
    Barry's correct in that if a withdrawal agreement can't be reached then there will be no transition. But the latest rumblings I've heard is the whole of the UK will stay in a customs union through the transition period and NI will also stay in the single market. Meaning some for of border checks down the Irish sea. The DUP won't agree to that so that gives a problem to T.May. Parliament might go for that but without labour support, or at least a number of labour MP's then this won't fly.

    SO a hard brexit would still be the stronger betting option.
    I've picked up that vibe too ----- and if true, then May would be exposed as a liar, because that would clearly NOT mean Brexit....and that 'transitional ' period is nonsense too -- the referendum was held in 2016 ffs.....Hammond and co clearly want to string it out as long as possible....however, strange how people continually appear to ignore the fact that the trading benefits between the EU and the UK are mutual....... and act as if it is only the UK that is the beneficiary.....albeit, the UK certainly has MORE to gain via leaving, and not just in the financial stakes either, so will be less affected in the long term....maybe we will then be able to fix more potholes, and more readily improve the finances of the NHS....now wouldn't that be nice......

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stevlin View Post
    I've picked up that vibe too ----- and if true, then May would be exposed as a liar, because that would clearly NOT mean Brexit....and that 'transitional ' period is nonsense too -- the referendum was held in 2016 ffs.....Hammond and co clearly want to string it out as long as possible....however, strange how people continually appear to ignore the fact that the trading benefits between the EU and the UK are mutual....... and act as if it is only the UK that is the beneficiary.....albeit, the UK certainly has MORE to gain via leaving, and not just in the financial stakes either, so will be less affected in the long term....maybe we will then be able to fix more potholes, and more readily improve the finances of the NHS....now wouldn't that be nice......
    While I agree there is definitely mutual benefit for the UK and EU in the trading relationship, where we differ though is being in the EU is the best possible case in my opinion. Moving away from that with each step both the EU and UK are worse off. The worst position that will hurt the most is a hard brexit. AT that point the UK will have lost 40% of it's free trade with the EU plus all the remaining free trade globally that it does through EU agreements. The EU will loose about 7% of its free trade with the UK. All this trade will not disappear, either people will pay more for these goods and or the respective manufacturers will have to cut profits and lower prices. Most likely luxury goods will best survive as people will pay out for these, but at the other end of the spectrum it won't be pretty.
    Unless you can demonstrate how the UK will do better the simple percentages above would not support you view that the UK will do far better than the EU.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stevlin View Post
    I think you'll find the 2020 transition deal is already agreed .....the EU are making noises that it could be extended further.........what we have attempted to make conditional upon a trade deal being agreed is that ridiculous £39m 'settlement' sum......
    The withdrawal agreement is *not* currently agreed.

    At the moment the text of the agreement is mostly done but several difficult points remain, most notably the issues surrounding what would happen to NI if no agreement is reached at the end of the "transition period" set out in the WA.

    The text if the agreement needs to be provisionally agreed (between negotiators) by December at the latest and *then* needs to be agreed by the UK parliament, the EU council and EU parliament before March 2019 in order to be "agreed" and then come into force when it if the UK leaves the EU in march 2019.

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    Quote Originally Posted by El Jefe View Post
    It is a transition to a deal - if there is no deal there is nothing to transition to.

    A “no deal” Brexit does what it says on the tin. It means the UK and the EU would be unable to reach a withdrawal agreement. If no agreement can be made, it means there would be no 21-month transition period, which Theresa May is currently proposing.

    Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/no-d...-consequences/
    Right, if we agree a transition period but then fail to agree anything else the UK will still face a "no deal" scenario when the transition period ends (end of 2020 or possibly 2021).

    Of course, in this scenario the UK and EU will have had another 2 years to prepare and the NI "backstop" protocol (whatever it is) will come into effect.

    If no Withdrawal agreement is made that doesn't preclude any future arrangements with the EU (although that might be more difficult) however all the various "nightmare scenarios" like energy medicine airlifts, port chose, grounded planes etc will start to play out.

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerry T View Post
    Barry's correct in that if a withdrawal agreement can't be reached then there will be no transition. But the latest rumblings I've heard is the whole of the UK will stay in a customs union through the transition period and NI will also stay in the single market. Meaning some for of border checks down the Irish sea. The DUP won't agree to that so that gives a problem to T.May. Parliament might go for that but without labour support, or at least a number of labour MP's then this won't fly.

    SO a hard brexit would still be the stronger betting option.
    During the transition period (if agreed) the whole of the UK will stay in the CU and SM. Almost all other EU member rights and obligations will apply so FoM, financial passports etc will all stay in place.

    The (proposed) UK staying in the CU and/or NI staying in the SM/CU will only occur *if* there has been a WA and no other deal is reached.

    Effectively (if the WA is agreed) very little will change on 1 April 2020. Those changes will have been postponed to 1 Jan 2021.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stevlin View Post
    RAAB has already conceded that there could be a 'leaving bill', irrespective of a deal or not - ( albeit I cannot see how in view of our well above average contributions)......and the budget runs out in either 20 or 21 - perhaps it should be us asking for a rebate!! https://www.politico.eu/article/brex...a-brexit-bill/
    the "leaving bill" is simply an agreed formula for the UK paying the remainder of monies it has already agreed to pay (and in some cases has already been spent) in the absence of rolling those payments up with our regular contributions.

    The oft quoted analogynisnyiur bar tab at the golf club. If your bar tab (for drinks already drunk) is usually paid off by being added to your monthly membership fee. What donyiundi when you stop being a member and stop paying your membership fee? Does your bar tab evaporate? No, you need to agree a method of paying the bar tab seoeratky from the membership fee. In the case if the UK, the EU has stated it wants the amounts due to be paid on the same schedule as they would have been if the UK remained a member and not as one "lump" sum.

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry View Post
    £39 billion is "only" around £600 for every man woman and child in the country. Now that would make an impact on the NHS!
    As I pointed out about the £40bn is an estimated total. The payments will be stretched out over many years, slowly tapering off.


    So the £600 per person you propose to spend on the NHS instead, would also be spread over several years ie be an average of, say, £100p/p over 6 years.

    This needs to be taken in the context of the £2,300 per person the that is spent on the NHS every year.

    So the effect would be mild, at best, and may not even happen if the losses to government revenue due to brexit are greater than and longer lasting than £40bn.

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stevlin View Post
    Tell you what though Barry...the transition period was at the UK's request.......and it isn't in the interests of the EU to have that period reduced.....if anything, because of May and Hammond , (and Barnier of course) - neither side will ask for it be reduced!! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43456502
    Mrs May ainít necessarily out of the woods yet. There could be a big fat boot stuck firmly in to the Chequers Deal yet.

    As as previously stated nothingís agreed ..........
    I can explain it to you, but I canít understand it for you.

  8. #18
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    144 days to go until we leave.
    Might be gross stupidity or we might make a gross, who knows?

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barry View Post
    144 days to go until we leave.
    Might be gross stupidity or we might make a gross, who knows?

    Channel 4 did a special program on Brexit last night. I was not at all surprised to see Cornwall has changed it's mind since the referendum in favour of remain.
    Now the consequences of Brexit are becoming clear people in Cornwall have realised how bad Brexit is going to be for the local economy.

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by lankou View Post
    Channel 4 did a special program on Brexit last time. I was not at all surprised to see Cornwall has changed it's mind since the referendum in favour of remain.
    Now the consequences of Brexit are becoming clear people in Cornwall have realised how bad Brexit is going to be for the local economy.
    What consequences are becoming clear? Do tell.
    I can explain it to you, but I canít understand it for you.

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