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Thread: Petition to PROPERLY leave the EU

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by beelbeeb View Post
    I was being a little cheeky with my post 

    I don't recall anyone on this forum telling me to live in the EU however it is not an uncommon theme amongst some sections of Brexit supporters (and also amongst racist going back well before brexit in the form of "go back to where you came from")

    For example

    https://twitter.com/johnthemakem/sta...594699265?s=19

    https://twitter.com/gloyogi/status/1...322717186?s=19

    https://twitter.com/Johnlew76193580/...222652422?s=19

    https://twitter.com/Donforester/stat...873800192?s=19

    And so on.

    It does occur to me that if people really wanted to live in an English speaking country outside the EU, they could have moved (as ex-pats, not immigrants obviously) to Australiastralia or New Zealand.....

    But "The UK is out home! Why should we move just because we disagree with the direction it is taking!?" the ones that don't want to to be migrants say.

    "Exactly" I reply.

    For clarity, I don't think anyone should have to move if they don't want to.
    And Yes you were being cheeky because I knew it hadn't happened here,free speech does have its limits,well as far as forum rules go anyway.

    My first point was that everybody is entitled to their opinion but telling people to go back where they came from or go and live somewhere else is not valid debate and secondly it would be fairer if you told those people directly rather than lumping everyone on here in to it.
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    When the eagles are silent the parrots begin to jabber.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Jefe View Post
    The results from referendums are always correct - the results from opinion polls very rarely so.
    referendum results are just the raw, unweighted result of a large opinion poll. They may be given special legal status (as in the case of the recent irish constitutional referendum) or they may be purely advisory with no legally binding effects (as the Brexit referendum was) but the result is never more than an unusually large opinion poll

    The Brexit Referendum didn't take the opinions of over 25% of the (reduced) electorate.

    The 52/48 result is actually a 37.4/34.7 result with 27.9% don't know.

    Brexiter are effectively saying that either the 27.9% don't count at all or that they would have voted in the exact same proportion as those that did vote.

    The first undermines the idea that the result is a true representation of everyone's opinion the second is obviously unlikely.

    A poll, despite a smaller sample, can be weighted to try to get a prediction of how the entire elecotrate would vote (if compelled) or, if turnouts are also weighted, what the actual results would be.

    Any referendum with less than complete turnout is by definition only ever a prediction of way the entire electorate would vote

    The results of the brexit referendum show that on a single day in 2016 17.4m people selected the Leave option and 16.1m people selected the remain option. It says nothing about how the government should then act.

    Before anyone says "but DC promised/The leaflet said" etc remember that advocating that the government can overide legislation simply by printing a leaflet is advocating for a dictatorship.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by beelbeeb View Post
    referendum results are just the raw, unweighted result of a large opinion poll. They may be given special legal status (as in the case of the recent irish constitutional referendum) or they may be purely advisory with no legally binding effects (as the Brexit referendum was) but the result is never more than an unusually large opinion poll

    The Brexit Referendum didn't take the opinions of over 25% of the (reduced) electorate.

    The 52/48 result is actually a 37.4/34.7 result with 27.9% don't know.

    Brexiter are effectively saying that either the 27.9% don't count at all or that they would have voted in the exact same proportion as those that did vote.

    The first undermines the idea that the result is a true representation of everyone's opinion the second is obviously unlikely.
    In a referendum everyone gets the same vote, if some people choose not to use their vote then that is up to them (it is a free country). Out of those that do respond you end up with a majority one way or the other.

    Polls on the other hand are rarely correct - they rely far too much on how the individual polling company weights the result and even how the polling is carried out. To average out the inconsistencies in individual polls we have to look at the poll of polls - and in the UK there were 7 companies doing those for the Referendum in slightly different ways and they all got the result wrong.

    So tell me again why we should take any notice of polls?

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  5. #34
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    Not signed! However, as people might expect, I have signed various petitions for a second referendum or for remaining in the EU.
    I dahn do non-judgement'aw. ... and put ya blinkin' shirt on mate, wiwya!

  6. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Jefe View Post
    In a referendum everyone gets the same vote, if some people choose not to use their vote then that is up to them (it is a free country). Out of those that do respond you end up with a majority one way or the other.

    Polls on the other hand are rarely correct - they rely far too much on how the individual polling company weights the result and even how the polling is carried out. To average out the inconsistencies in individual polls we have to look at the poll of polls - and in the UK there were 7 companies doing those for the Referendum in slightly different ways and they all got the result wrong.

    So tell me again why we should take any notice of polls?
    So if 100 people voted in the brexit referendum and 52 voted leave you would call that an accurate picture of the UK populations views?

    Unless you ask every single person their view you cannot (by definition) have an accurate picture of everyone's views.

    A referendum has a very large sample size, but completely excludes any turn out effects, so as a method of gauging public opinion is as flawed as polls which have smaller samples butput more effort into sample weighting.

    It is entirely possible that the electorate was remain in 2016 and that the final result was skewed by both Remainers (particularly those who were "soft remain") not voting for various reasons and people voting Leave as a signal against the Conservative government (the "I didn't think they'd win" camp)

    This is the real reason why Leave is so against a referendum in the final deal.

  7. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by beelbeeb View Post
    referendum results are just the raw, unweighted result of a large opinion poll. the result is never more than an unusually large opinion poll
    I suppose a house is just an unusually large pile of bricks.
    those princes have accomplished most who paid little heed to keeping their promises, but who knew how to manipulate the minds of men craftily.

    Machiavelli, The Prince

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  9. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by beelbeeb View Post
    So if 100 people voted in the brexit referendum and 52 voted leave you would call that an accurate picture of the UK populations views?

    Unless you ask every single person their view you cannot (by definition) have an accurate picture of everyone's views.

    A referendum has a very large sample size, but completely excludes any turn out effects, so as a method of gauging public opinion is as flawed as polls which have smaller samples butput more effort into sample weighting.

    It is entirely possible that the electorate was remain in 2016 and that the final result was skewed by both Remainers (particularly those who were "soft remain") not voting for various reasons and people voting Leave as a signal against the Conservative government (the "I didn't think they'd win" camp)

    This is the real reason why Leave is so against a referendum in the final deal.

    A referendum isn't supposed to be an 'accurate picture of everyone's views' - it is simply a vote where 2 options are provided and the electorate, if they wish, can choose what one they prefer.

    We dont have this daft idea of yours that a General Election should provide an accurate picture of everyone's views so why try to introduce it into the referendum process?. If Remain had won by the same margin would you now be promoting ignoring the result as it did not provide an accurate picture of everyone's views

  10. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Jefe View Post
    A referendum isn't supposed to be an 'accurate picture of everyone's views' -
    It's a far more accurate picture than a poll, by virtue of it's sample size. A poll tries to make up for the small size by taking a balanced cross-section of the population and weighting. But it doesn't actually make up for it, because you can't. All the people who aren't polled must be guessed. It is just a statistical guess, and could be 99% wrong.
    those princes have accomplished most who paid little heed to keeping their promises, but who knew how to manipulate the minds of men craftily.

    Machiavelli, The Prince

  11. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by scott777 View Post
    It's a far more accurate picture than a poll, by virtue of it's sample size. A poll tries to make up for the small size by taking a balanced cross-section of the population and weighting. But it doesn't actually make up for it, because you can't. All the people who aren't polled must be guessed. It is just a statistical guess, and could be 99% wrong.
    Well its your turn now,take it from me,trying to talk sense to the senseless will end in tears.
    17,410,742 people said LEAVE!

  12. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by scott777 View Post
    It's a far more accurate picture than a poll, by virtue of it's sample size. A poll tries to make up for the small size by taking a balanced cross-section of the population and weighting. But it doesn't actually make up for it, because you can't. All the people who aren't polled must be guessed. It is just a statistical guess, and could be 99% wrong.

    As the polls were for the Referendum.

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