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Thread: Attack on Sergei Skripal and his daughter

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sampan View Post
    I think you have forgotten the tit for tat nature of counter espionage. If you take something to a new level, your opposition will simply raise their ops to that level and start giving it back.
    I would be very, very surprised if a former Intelligence officer like Putin would really want to open this sort of Pandora's box and expose his own active and former operatives to equivalent retaliation.
    Ruthless he may be, but he is not reckless nor insane.

    The use of a Chemical Weapon is a big deal. What would be so special about Skripol as to warrant the crossing of this threshold in order to use one against him?
    If they wanted him dead, a bullet in the back of the brain would do the trick (which the nerve agent has not yet achieved don't forget) and with only a fraction of the diplomatic fall out.

    Incidentally, Rare is a very interesting descriptive that is being used. We are constantly being reminded of the lethalness of these chemicals and how even a tiny drop is sufficient to kill hundreds. Somehow however Skripal is still alive, which suggests a poor potency. Poor Potency could well suggest a none professional manufacture and that I would put to you, would indeed be a rarity.
    Good post sampan , and i agree.

    This is looking like another "oh look theres a squirrel" story to keep the plebs minds off the mess the english conservative party are making of brexit.

    What are they going to do? Tickle mr putin with a feather again the way they did over the litvinenko affair?

    I wouldnt worry about it sampan , this month they are making blustering noises aided by the compliant brit nat media about russia being bad , next month they will be begging you to send over a few more oligarchs to buy up some more london real estate whilst asking you for a free trade deal and if you can throw in building a nuclear power station or two in the process.
    "Pour l’Angleterre … il n’y a pas d’alliance qui tienne, ni de traité qui vaille, ni la vérité qui compte." Charles De Gaulle

    Alba gu brath An rud is fhiach a ghabhail, 's fhiach e iarraidh

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  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sampan View Post
    I think you have forgotten the tit for tat nature of counter espionage. If you take something to a new level, your opposition will simply raise their ops to that level and start giving it back.
    I would be very, very surprised if a former Intelligence officer like Putin would really want to open this sort of Pandora's box and expose his own active and former operatives to equivalent retaliation.
    Ruthless he may be, but he is not reckless nor insane.

    The use of a Chemical Weapon is a big deal. What would be so special about Skripol as to warrant the crossing of this threshold in order to use one against him?
    If they wanted him dead, a bullet in the back of the brain would do the trick (which the nerve agent has not yet achieved don't forget) and with only a fraction of the diplomatic fall out.

    Incidentally, Rare is a very interesting descriptive that is being used. We are constantly being reminded of the lethalness of these chemicals and how even a tiny drop is sufficient to kill hundreds. Somehow however Skripal is still alive, which suggests a poor potency. Poor Potency could well suggest a none professional manufacture and that I would put to you, would indeed be a rarity.
    Are you saying in the case of Litvinenko, that he was not killed using polonium and/or this was not carried out by agents from Russia? This was a much more obscure and nasty way to kill than even most nerve agents. I think Putin is aware that retaliation of this sort is actually not something that would be carried out by the British intelligence services although maybe he would not mind if it did provoke such an action. As I said, this not about revenge but about deterrence, which is a more intelligent action.

    There are a variety of nerve agents of varying potency and required methods of delivery. There is no one particular "antidote" as has been suggested. And actually it would not matter too much to the effectiveness as a deterrent whether this kills Skripal or not; showing that he, and others (and their families) that may choose to betray their country, would always be vulnerable may well be sufficient.

  4. #23
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    The plot thickens, breaking news:-

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43344725

    About 100 military personnel have been deployed to Salisbury to help in the investigation into the attempted murder of an ex-Russian spy and his daughter.
    They will include Royal Marines and other military personnel who have had specialist training in chemical warfare and decontamination, the BBC understands.

  5. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by lankou View Post
    The plot thickens, breaking news:-

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43344725

    About 100 military personnel have been deployed to Salisbury to help in the investigation into the attempted murder of an ex-Russian spy and his daughter.
    They will include Royal Marines and other military personnel who have had specialist training in chemical warfare and decontamination, the BBC understands.
    Glad you’re on board to bring new information, but why is this a thickening plot when there is no change to the basic story and supposition...?
    The poster reserves the right to amend or completely change any opinions he has posted at any time...

  6. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patman Post View Post
    Glad you’re on board to bring new information, but why is this a thickening plot when there is no change to the basic story and supposition...?
    It now 180 military personnel:- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43344725

    It now appears apparently they were poisoned in his home which does change things if accurate. (Given the long delay before they became ill. That would rule out a number of nerve agents.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by grumzed View Post
    Are you saying in the case of Litvinenko, that he was not killed using polonium and/or this was not carried out by agents from Russia? This was a much more obscure and nasty way to kill than even most nerve agents. I think Putin is aware that retaliation of this sort is actually not something that would be carried out by the British intelligence services although maybe he would not mind if it did provoke such an action. As I said, this not about revenge but about deterrence, which is a more intelligent action.

    There are a variety of nerve agents of varying potency and required methods of delivery. There is no one particular "antidote" as has been suggested. And actually it would not matter too much to the effectiveness as a deterrent whether this kills Skripal or not; showing that he, and others (and their families) that may choose to betray their country, would always be vulnerable may well be sufficient.
    That seems a well-encapsulated narrative of the popular public perception. An interesting addition someone mentioned this morning was that British security must be worrying — or scoring some successes against — Putin/the Kremlin/the Russian mafia for them to dish out such a public retribution here...
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  8. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by lankou View Post
    It now 180 military personnel:- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43344725

    It now appears apparently they were poisoned in his home which does change things if accurate. (Given the long delay before they became ill. That would rule out a number of nerve agents.)
    Why does this “now appear apparently they were poisoned in his home” — aren’t all the locations the Skripals are known to have been at before they were found unwell being investigated...?
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  9. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patman Post View Post
    Why does this “now appear apparently they were poisoned in his home” — aren’t all the locations the Skripals are known to have been at before they were found unwell being investigated...?
    They are, but bringing in 180 military personnel is a bit of a game changer.

  10. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by lankou View Post
    They are, but bringing in 180 military personnel is a bit of a game changer.
    I don't think so. The reason is probably due to the point that if Skripal was attacked somewhere other than where he was found and, in addition, a policeman who attended the scene was affected by the toxin, then it means that the toxin could be distributed over a wider area than first thought and may still be present. This needs a larger force of trained personel in order to detect and irradicate any of the toxin over a wider area.
    Last edited by grumzed; 09-03-2018 at 02:36 PM. Reason: spelling error

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  12. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sampan View Post
    If they wanted him dead, a bullet in the back of the brain would do the trick (which the nerve agent has not yet achieved don't forget) and with only a fraction of the diplomatic fall out.

    Incidentally, Rare is a very interesting descriptive that is being used. We are constantly being reminded of the lethalness of these chemicals and how even a tiny drop is sufficient to kill hundreds. Somehow however Skripal is still alive, which suggests a poor potency. Poor Potency could well suggest a none professional manufacture and that I would put to you, would indeed be a rarity.
    Don't forget Alexander Litvinenko survived for three weeks after being taken ill. But if you're correct, and it's a DIY nerve agent poison, it seems only Ricin has been detected being made at home in the UK in Wood Green, 2002.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/2636099.stm

    However, there are cases of victims — eg, Aleksandr Solzhenitsin and Vladimir Kostov — surviving "professionally administered" Ricin pellets...
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