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Thread: Attack on Sergei Skripal and his daughter

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sampan View Post
    Any particular reason why you left off MI5, CIA or Mossad from your listing?
    They're not the organisations that first come to mind and state broadcasters don't seems to issue threats...
    The poster reserves the right to amend or completely change any opinions he has posted at any time...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Patman Post View Post
    They're not the organisations that first come to mind and state broadcasters don't seems to issue threats...
    Any reason why the three State Intelligence Agencies with active and publicly acknowledged overseas assassination programs would not come to mind?
    Sad to say that your ref to state broadcasters has gone right over my head.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Javert View Post
    I guess we have to wait for the police to do their investigation.

    It does seem odd because we do apparently know that this guy was already part of a prisoner exchange. One would have thought that if the Russians wanted him dead, they would have just killed him while he was still there rather than putting him in a prisoner exchange.

    It also seems to be ad odds with the MO of these things - from what I understand, once someone's been exchanged in that way they should be left alone - honour amongst thieves and all that.

    Also, it doesn't sound like this guy was actively causing a lot of problems for Russia in recent times, at least not in a high profile way.

    Wait for the investigation - in any event, a nerve agent attack on two UK citizens like this is clearly something that should concern our security services.
    Not at all odd,if they'd killed him they'd have had nothing to exchange and has already been said a major Russian state broadcaster has made veiled threats.

    The comment by Kirill Kleimenov - the presenter on government-controlled Channel One's flagship Vremya news programme - sounded like a veiled, mocking threat to anyone considering becoming a double agent for Britain.
    "I don't wish death on anyone, but for purely educational purposes, I have a warning for anyone who dreams of such a career," he said.
    "The profession of a traitor is one of the most dangerous in the world," Kleimenov said, adding that few who had chosen it had lived to a ripe old age.
    To paraphase one of our last great political leaders Winston Spencer Churchill "Never in the field of British politics and Brexit was so much expected by so many of so few......only to be bitterly disappointed"

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    Quote Originally Posted by cromwell View Post
    Not at all odd,if they'd killed him they'd have had nothing to exchange and has already been said a major Russian state broadcaster has made veiled threats.
    Take a step further - who would carry out an exchange like this in future with Russia if Russia then goes ahead and kills the people they are trying to get back later on anyway.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Javert View Post
    Take a step further - who would carry out an exchange like this in future with Russia if Russia then goes ahead and kills the people they are trying to get back later on anyway.
    that depends on who is being exchanged and what value they might still have for a time,if they die at a later stage who really (in the murky world of intelligence) really cares.
    To paraphase one of our last great political leaders Winston Spencer Churchill "Never in the field of British politics and Brexit was so much expected by so many of so few......only to be bitterly disappointed"

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    Quote Originally Posted by cromwell View Post
    that depends on who is being exchanged and what value they might still have for a time,if they die at a later stage who really (in the murky world of intelligence) really cares.
    er.... their children, wife etc?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Javert View Post
    er.... their children, wife etc?
    Er their family aren't part of the intelligence world,an asset has a value to the security services,families don't really come in to that equation unless it affects the worth of said asset.
    Last edited by cromwell; 08-03-2018 at 07:51 PM. Reason: typo
    To paraphase one of our last great political leaders Winston Spencer Churchill "Never in the field of British politics and Brexit was so much expected by so many of so few......only to be bitterly disappointed"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Javert View Post
    I guess we have to wait for the police to do their investigation.

    It does seem odd because we do apparently know that this guy was already part of a prisoner exchange. One would have thought that if the Russians wanted him dead, they would have just killed him while he was still there rather than putting him in a prisoner exchange.

    It also seems to be ad odds with the MO of these things - from what I understand, once someone's been exchanged in that way they should be left alone - honour amongst thieves and all that.

    Also, it doesn't sound like this guy was actively causing a lot of problems for Russia in recent times, at least not in a high profile way.

    Wait for the investigation - in any event, a nerve agent attack on two UK citizens like this is clearly something that should concern our security services.
    The Russians retrieved 10 of their agents in exchange for Skripal and 3 others so this was worth the effort and reason to keep the guy in prison for a while. I think the reason to then attack him and potentially kill him, is to act as a deterrent to anyone else thinking of becoming a double agent. Killing his close family members clearly amplifies the effectiveness of such an action.

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    Quote Originally Posted by grumzed View Post
    The Russians retrieved 10 of their agents in exchange for Skripal and 3 others so this was worth the effort and reason to keep the guy in prison for a while. I think the reason to then attack him and potentially kill him, is to act as a deterrent to anyone else thinking of becoming a double agent. Killing his close family members clearly amplifies the effectiveness of such an action.
    I think you have forgotten the tit for tat nature of counter espionage. If you take something to a new level, your opposition will simply raise their ops to that level and start giving it back.
    I would be very, very surprised if a former Intelligence officer like Putin would really want to open this sort of Pandora's box and expose his own active and former operatives to equivalent retaliation.
    Ruthless he may be, but he is not reckless nor insane.

    The use of a Chemical Weapon is a big deal. What would be so special about Skripol as to warrant the crossing of this threshold in order to use one against him?
    If they wanted him dead, a bullet in the back of the brain would do the trick (which the nerve agent has not yet achieved don't forget) and with only a fraction of the diplomatic fall out.

    Incidentally, Rare is a very interesting descriptive that is being used. We are constantly being reminded of the lethalness of these chemicals and how even a tiny drop is sufficient to kill hundreds. Somehow however Skripal is still alive, which suggests a poor potency. Poor Potency could well suggest a none professional manufacture and that I would put to you, would indeed be a rarity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sampan View Post

    Incidentally, Rare is a very interesting descriptive that is being used. We are constantly being reminded of the lethalness of these chemicals and how even a tiny drop is sufficient to kill hundreds. Somehow however Skripal is still alive, which suggests a poor potency. Poor Potency could well suggest a none professional manufacture and that I would put to you, would indeed be a rarity.
    I agree, this is now the 6th day, and they are both still alive.

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