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Thread: Predictions anyone?

  1. #1
    Midas Guest

    Question Predictions anyone?

    With less than a week to go, does anyone have any actual predictions on what the outcome of the election might be in terms of seats?

    For what it's worth I think there'll be a hung parliament with about 290 seats going to the Conservatives, about 250 to Labour, 70 or so to the Liberal Democrats, and around 20 to the other parties.

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    Re: Predictions anyone?

    Going to be lazy but I think this is accurate Electoral Calculus

    On current polling and betting evidence, we can say that the likeliest scenario at the election is:

    The Conservatives will get both the largest number of votes and the most seats.
    Labour and the Lib Dems are in a tight battle for second place, but Labour will get more seats.
    Parliament will be hung
    As the situation is dynamic, this could change before polling day
    "The people who have sacrificed their view in order to get to the top have very often left no footprints in the sands of time." Tony Benn

  3. #3
    hhhhancock Guest

    Re: Predictions anyone?

    I would agree with Midas's prediction. Certainly with a Con majority but far short of an overall majority. The situation is so volatile at the moment that anything could happen, all it needs is for Cameron to fart while miked and everything could change.

  4. #4
    DougieG Guest

    Re: Predictions anyone?

    I think that there's a serious danger of people (not necessarily you guys) counting chickens. Not a single vote has yet been cast - people would do well to bear that in mind. I'm crossing fingers for a hung parliament with Lib Dems on about 100 seats. I think it could happen, but I really have no idea what is going to happen on Thursday.

  5. #5
    Balthazar Guest

    Re: Predictions anyone?

    I think the Tories may swing it. I hope they don't - please may Midas be correct - but:

    (a) Cameron could get some momentum in the final week. He's well positioned: post-Duffy and the Liberal bubble deflating.

    (b) People may easily be lying to polsters, pretending they're not going to be voting Tory. It's happened before and is a reasonable thing to do: it's shameful to vote Conservative and some don't like to admit it.

    In the above senario Cameron breaks through the 40% mark and gets in with a small overall majority of seats. That's when the trouble starts: a weak government of Etonians seeking to screw the poor and stuff the pockets of the rich.

  6. #6
    Midas Guest

    Re: Predictions anyone?

    Quote Originally Posted by Opinionated View Post
    Going to be lazy but I think this is accurate Electoral Calculus
    Thanks for the link babe, I hadn't seen that one before......

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    Re: Predictions anyone?

    I'm worried now that Cameron could win. Despite his substance-starved performance in the debates (IMO) and his refusal to engage with Brown on issue after issue, it seems he does have some sort of momentum now. I really, really, really, hope I'm wrong but polls are notoriously unreliable, and Balthazar is right, people are ashamed (rightly so) of voting Tory and may lie. Of course if there is some sort of scandal next week it could all change.
    Democracy is the recurrent suspicion that more than half of the people are right more than half of the time.
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  8. #8
    Blazzin Guest

    Re: Predictions anyone?

    Most likely scenario: A Labour Government formed by the tiniest majority (I really do mean by 2 or 3 seats) or with the help of a couple of independents/ minor party members form a cobbled together de facto Labour government.

    second most likely scenario: Lib/ Lab coalition government

    third most likely scenario Conservative majority of about 10 seats or less

    The REAL winners will be the Greens, as their profile will increase and no matter what happens Proportional rep seems more and more likely putting them in a much stronger position for the future. Also if they hold onto this manifesto for future reference I have no doubt their economic policy will be vindicated as the best of all the parties when viewed in retrospect!

  9. #9
    Blazzin Guest

    Re: Predictions anyone?

    Quote Originally Posted by Opinionated View Post
    Going to be lazy but I think this is accurate Electoral Calculus

    On current polling and betting evidence, we can say that the likeliest scenario at the election is:

    The Conservatives will get both the largest number of votes and the most seats.
    Labour and the Lib Dems are in a tight battle for second place, but Labour will get more seats.
    Parliament will be hung
    As the situation is dynamic, this could change before polling day
    Good link but not sure about the crudeness of the boundary change analysis as a number of these changes will give Tory seats to the Lib Dems potentially. I think their approximation of these changes taking 10 seats from labour and giving them to the tories is a little crude as it does not appear to factor in Lib/Con marginals although I may be wrong as I only had a quick look.

    In addition, I tend to trust my instincts over 'scientific' analysis of this kind. I do not really feel there is enthusiasm for Cameron which would be needed in order to overturn the Labour majority. Using historical data is also unlikely to be very accurate and is not perhaps a great methodology

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    Re: Predictions anyone?

    I predict come the morning of 7th May the unelected commissioners and bureacrates in Brussels will still be pulling our chain

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